Episode 895: The Chain Letters Edition
Date June 1, 2016 Summary Ben and Sam banter about old business, then answer listener emails about deceptive defenders, gold chains, nature vs. nurture, strikeout records and more. Topics * Poorly rated but fun to watch defenders * Nature vs nurture impact on player skills * Player jewelry * Likelihood of continuing win streaks * Tim Lincecum contract hypothetical * Single game strikeout record hypothetical Intro Run The Jewels, "36" Chain" Outro Prince, "The Question of U" Banter * Christian Bethancourt, who is normally a catcher, pitched in a game yesterday. Sam thinks he could have a reasonably long career as a relief pitcher. * Episode 891 follow-up: Several listeners think a pitcher who gave up only home runs to start a game would stay in longer simply because it would take a while to get a new pitcher warmed up. * Episode 894 follow-up: A listener wrote in that his coach had instructed pitchers to throw at a runner during a play similar to what happened to Alfredo Simon. * Episode 884 follow-up: Rougned Odor's intentional throw at Jose Bautista. Email Questions * Henry: "For the most part I think advanced statistics make watching the game more fun. I like knowing player's heat maps, their BABIP tendencies, their wRC+. It adds to my enjoyment of the action. But I'm struggling with fielding stats. This is not an 'I don't trust fielding stats' email. I believe the stats but I don't know how to watch the game with the stats in mind. I'm a Mets fan and our new shortstop, Asdrubal Cabrera is one of those guys who "makes all the plays". The announcers, the talk radio guys, all love him and he's fun to watch. Smooth, balanced, steady, sure handed. But the Fangraphs and Baseball Reference stats say he's terrible, like worse than Jeter terrible. So how do we watch fielders with the stats in mind? From the stands or from your living room, what do you look for in the game to see if the guy's having a good day or a bad day? How do you watch a player's strengths or weaknesses. When one shortstop's web gem is another guy's routine grounder, how do you eyeball a guy's value in the field?" * Brett: "You've talked a few times about how baseball skills correlate to each other. Those who are good at hitting tend to be good at catching, throwing, and running. I'm curious to hear why you think that is. Are those skills built on a common foundation (strength or general athleticism)? Or are players who exhibit one outlier skill more likely to get training in others so that by the time they reach the professional level those players have well rounded skill sets? Put another way, if nature were less nurtured, how nurtured would it be?" * Mike: "Presume we live in a world where no one knows who Jorge Soler is. If you conduct an experiment where you took this video and you were able to edit out completely Jorge Soler's bouncing gold chain in one version of the video and then you conducted an experiment where you showed the two versions of the video to a statistically significant number of groups of scouts, writers, evaluators, etc. and then asked them to estimate Soler's OPS+ for the full year, which version of the video would get a higher number, and how much higher would it be?" * Matt: "In comparison to the Rich Hill contract conundrum, what would you have paid Tim Lincecum if he had throw 95 MPH in his tryout?" * James (Sarasota, FL): "Picture this, it's October 2nd, 2016 the last day of the regular season. All of the playoff spots and their seedings have been determined. None of the games have postseason impact. The ten playoff teams rest their starters in anticipation of the postseason, the other 20 teams all try to get their starting pitchers to break the single game strikeout record. They do this by refusing to field any balls put in play such that the only outs recorded would be via strikeout. Each team uses its best starting pitcher in this effort and keeps him in the game without fielding any batted balls until one of the following things occurs: the starting pitcher records his 21st strikeout, the starting pitcher throws 140 pitches in the game, the starting pitcher throws 40 pitches in an inning, or it becomes mathematically impossible for the starter to record 21 strikeouts within the 140 pitch limit. Possibly to help with the pitch count the team fields a batted ball once every few innings or so if its put in play on the first pitch. If 20 teams are trying this, what are the odds of at least one of the succeeding? How many of the starting pitchers would even make it through the fifth inning?" Play Index * Sam uses the Play Index to find out what the percentage likelihood is of a winning streak being extended. * A team is 51.1% likely to win a game after they have won one game. * 57% of teams that win two games in a row will win three games in a row. After that win streak likelihood begins to decline. * 16 game winning streaks are 50% likely to become 17 game win streaks. * Since 1947 there have been no 17 game win streaks. Notes * Sam thinks that baseball skills are "built on a common foundation of strength and general athleticism". * Ben guesses that in Mike's hypoethical the difference in Jorge Soler's predicted OPS+ would be by more than four points. * Team expected win percentage will fluctuate widely in baseball compared to other sports for a given day because of the impact of starting pitchers. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 895: The Chain Letters Edition Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes